Where is gold heading in 2016

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 4. 1. 2016
gcg16_alert

It’s the beginning of the year, and here comes my traditional gold market forecast. First, I’d like to evaluate last year’s outlook. At the time of its writing (January 2015), the price of gold was $1300. The precious metals had been rising back then and many people started to talk about beginning of the new…

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WASDE report – March 2015

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 16. 3. 2015

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) was published last week by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). I’ll focus on grains only because that’s the area of my interest. So what impact the report had? Bullish on corn, bearish on soybeans and slightly bullish on wheat in a nutshell. The biggest change…

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State of the crude oil market

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 9. 3. 2015

Crude oil has come through a massive sell-off. There are three main causes that led to this situation. Most important one is the oversupply caused by rising production in the US (fracking), other causes are strong dollar (US economy in good shape) and weak international demand (China slowing down). Although current downturn is severe, it…

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The widow maker spread ended in slight backwardation

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 26. 2. 2015

Unlike last year, when the widow maker spread expired in pretty wild backwardation, it finished yesterday in a quiet mood. But let’s explain a little bit about this spread. I’m talking about interdelivery natural gas spread between March and April, NGH15-NGJ15. Consumption of natural gas is usually high in winter due to heating demand. Consumption…

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Where is gold heading in 2015

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 26. 1. 2015

Gold is experiencing a strong rally since the start of 2015. The price currently hovers slightly below $1300. So what’s next for the gold price and what can we expect in the longer term? The most important thing I’d like to highlight is how the current move has impacted the positions structure of the gold…

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Natural gas at resistance

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 1. 4. 2013

Natural gas is at $4 which was an unbreakable resistance that turned the price down last year. Actually the price broke over $4 on Wednesday but pulled back on Thursday and is hovering slightly below $4 right now. Check out our chart of most liquid May future contract: So what now? Will the last year…

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Big move in grains

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 29. 3. 2013

We saw a big move down in grains yesterday. Thats because USDA released their prospective plantings and grain stocks reports. Farmers want to plant more acres of both corn and wheat this year. Corn estimate is at record 97.3 million acres against 97.16 last year. Soybeans came at four highest ever at 77.1 million acres…

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US Dollar up?

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 14. 2. 2013

US Dollar is on the verge of breaking up. At least in my opinion. And I think the upcoming move will be a big one. Gold and silver will probably get crushed. As you can see on spreadcharts.com March Dollar index (DXH13) future daily chart the dollar is completing a bullish wedge pattern: Maybe the…

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