Today, we have deployed a new version of our model. The preprocessing pipeline has been completely reworked. Moreover, I developed a smarter normalization of the input features that better represent the useful information in the market data.
These changes had two goals:
- make the model more selective
- reduce the noise of the signals
These two things are not necessarily better. If you push any model in a certain direction, you have to sacrifice something. In this case, the model will be more demanding in the signal selection, which would inevitably mean some signals will fail to pass the selection threshold. However, less is sometimes more. Although there won’t be as many signals as it used to be, the remaining ones will be of higher quality and less noisy.
Additionally, it will be harder for the signal to reach the 1.0 threshold and become valid. This, however, won’t be felt equally for all commodities, as I explained in the introductory article.
Finally, I’d like to remind you that signals alert you about trading opportunities that need further analysis. Especially in these times, you have to keep in mind that commodities are subject to panic selloffs and euphoric rallies for reasons unrelated to the commodity markets themselves, which therefore can’t be predicted. For example, the recent sale of basically everything due to the liquidity crisis or political games between USA/Russia/SA and their unpredictable impact on the crude oil market. Nevertheless, these external factors create historically the best opportunities if you can interpret the market correctly. We offer exactly these insights about top opportunities in our premium Research. For example, this is a great environment for our crude oil strategy.
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