Hedgers vs. Speculators

Elen Lindisova | Tutorials | 25. 5. 2017

In one of my recent articles about the COT report, I focused on the group of hedgers. Today, I would like to follow up on this topic with the second large group of market participants – the large speculators. This group is represented by the “Managed Money” in disaggregated COT reports or “Non-commercials” in the…


Cocoa/sugar ratio reveals a new opportunity

Elen Lindisova | Trading ideas | 18. 5. 2017

Ratio charts can show us many interesting things. They can reveal supports and resistances where’s a high probability of turnover. One such interesting situation can now be seen in the cocoa/sugar ratio. Take a look at the following chart. It’s clear that the ratio responds to support on the red line. The last time it…


Modelling carrying charges for grains

Pavel Hála | Announcements | 24. 4. 2017

I’m excited to announce some interesting new features in our app regarding grains and carrying charges. These functions are actually nothing new for me. I coded them for ZC, ZS, ZM and ZL sometime in 2010 into my personal Javascript app that later became an alpha version of the SpreadCharts.com app. What’s brand new today and…


Commitments of Traders – the Hedgers

Elen Lindisova | Tutorials | 25. 3. 2017

I wrote about COT analysis in my previous article. Today, I’ll continue with the Commitments of Traders, which is an important part of my trading approach. I mentioned big players and how they move the market. I’m going to describe who these large market participants are and how we can use their activity for our own…


From COT report to COT analysis

Elen Lindisova | Tutorials | 17. 3. 2017

COT report The Commitments of Traders report is not only beneficial to us – spread traders, but also for outright futures traders, currency traders, etc. COT reveals what’s behind the curtain. It gives us the information we’re unable to obtain from news and other common sources. We can determine whether the market is overbought or…


Understanding commodity ETF decay

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 1. 3. 2017

In the previous article, I explained the compounding effect and the reason why leveraged ETFs lose value over time. Today, we’ll take a look at commodity ETFs. These funds can decay very fast, even if they are non-leveraged. That’s because the mechanism of decay is of a different nature than that of leveraged ETFs holding…


Not all ETFs are created equal

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 20. 2. 2017

ETFs or Exchange Traded Funds are an investing hit of recent years. Even small investors can seamlessly open a position in a stock index or various commodities using an ETF. Previously, this was only possible by using big futures contracts that require a huge account. However, the human invention has no boundaries. More exotic ETFs,…


Where is gold heading in 2016

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 4. 1. 2016

It’s the beginning of the year, and here comes my traditional gold market forecast. First, I’d like to evaluate last year’s outlook. At the time of its writing (January 2015), the price of gold was $1300. The precious metals had been rising back then and many people started to talk about the beginning of the…


Commitments of Traders

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 15. 10. 2015

As I had promised last time, I will finally delve into my quant beginnings. I consider the work in COT analysis to be my truly first quantitative achievement. COT, or the Commitments of Traders, is the report published by the CFTC (US federal agency for the supervision of commodity markets). The report is actually a…


New term structure chart

Pavel Hála | Announcements | 16. 9. 2015

Term structure (or forward curve) gives investors an important insight into the state of the markets. Now you can find it in SpreadCharts too! It’s under Historical charts in the app. Here’s the current term structure for CBOT corn as an example: