Where is gold heading in 2016

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 4. 1. 2016

It’s the beginning of the year, and here comes my traditional gold market forecast. First, I’d like to evaluate last year’s outlook. At the time of its writing (January 2015), the price of gold was $1300. The precious metals had been rising back then and many people started to talk about the beginning of the…

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Seasonal trading signals launched!

Pavel Hála | Announcements | 11. 8. 2015

After about a year of development, we’re launching our new seasonal trading signals. The studies are based on our own algorithm, which was tweaked to find the best trades in the futures markets. Actual trades are sorted by the entry date. Each row contains the computed entry and exit date from the trade, average return…

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Cattle-hog spreads at unsustainable levels

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 30. 3. 2015

The nearest spread between live cattle and lean hogs (LEJ15-HEJ15) was formerly considered wide at levels above 30c. It’s trading above 100c right now and still rising. This situation is unsustainable from the long term perspective. It’s only a matter of time before these markets at least partially converge. The profit potential is great, but…

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The widow maker spread ended in slight backwardation

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 26. 2. 2015

Unlike last year, when the widow maker spread expired in pretty wild backwardation, it finished yesterday in a quiet mood. But let’s explain a little bit about this spread. I’m talking about the interdelivery natural gas spread between March and April, NGH15-NGJ15. Consumption of natural gas is usually high in winter due to heating demand. Consumption…

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Trading grains in the current environment

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 2. 2. 2015

Given the current uncertainty in general markets (VIX is above 21 right now), it seems wise to escape into some uncorrelated assets. Grains fit this criterion quite well, given their low correlation with major asset classes like stocks or bonds. I’ll focus on corn and soybeans because I don’t trade wheat regularly (I have nothing…

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Major upgrade released

Pavel Hála | Announcements | 16. 5. 2013

New awesome tools, added functionality, corrected bugs, and great improvement in speed and overall user experience. 5-year seasonality trade alerts We’ve been working on this for a few months. You’ll no longer need to analyze seasonality manually. We have developed statistical algorithms and app.spreadcharts.com will deliver you the best upcoming commodity futures and spread trades…

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Soybean oil spread with great profit potential

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 21. 2. 2013

Today I have one more volatile (and therefore risky) spread. But despite volatility, this trade still has a very good RRR (risk reward ratio). The trade I’m talking about is the soybean oil interdelivery spread ZLZ13-ZLN13: Based on the picture above the technical setup is not great but still favorable. Price seems to have found…

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Crowded hogs spread

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 19. 2. 2013

Lean hogs are good for spread trading. So good that many people are watching it. I’ve seen recommendations to enter this trade during past weeks in many newsletters and from people on Twitter. The spread I’m talking about is HEM13-HEJ13. So, as I’ve said, most people who wished to enter this spread are probably already…

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One of my favorite natural gas trades

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 18. 2. 2013

Time has come to enter one of my favorite spread trades. It’s in NYMEX natural gas – NGQ13-NGM13. I’ve made money on this spread every single year during last five years. I consider NG to be a great commodity for spread trading. This spread trade is also very conservative because you can set just a…

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Wheat spread trade

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 13. 2. 2013

I’m watching one CBOT wheat interdelivery spread. It’s ZWZ13-ZWN13. Seasonality is pushing the spread up: ZWZ11-ZWN11 was an abnormal year and it’s distorting our chart. Luckily in our app you can interact with charts and that includes our seasonality analysis. If you click on the ZWZ11-ZWN11 in the legend or the little orange square beside…

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