Cocoa/sugar ratio reveals a new opportunity

Elen Lindisova | Trading ideas | 18. 5. 2017

Ratio charts can show us many interesting things. They can reveal supports and resistances where’s a high probability of turnover. One such interesting situation can now be seen in the cocoa/sugar ratio. Take a look at the following chart. It’s clear that the ratio responds to support on the red line. The last time it…

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Commitments of Traders – the Hedgers

Elen Lindisova | Tutorials | 25. 3. 2017

I wrote about COT analysis in my previous article. Today, I’ll continue with the Commitments of Traders, which is an important part of my trading approach. I mentioned big players and how they move the market. I’m going to describe who these large market participants are and how we can use their activity for our own…

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From COT report to COT analysis

Elen Lindisova | Tutorials | 17. 3. 2017

COT report The Commitments of Traders report is not only beneficial to us – spread traders, but also for outright futures traders, currency traders, etc. COT reveals what’s behind the curtain. It gives us the information we’re unable to obtain from news and other common sources. We can determine whether the market is overbought or…

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Where is gold heading in 2016

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 4. 1. 2016

It’s the beginning of the year, and here comes my traditional gold market forecast. First, I’d like to evaluate last year’s outlook. At the time of its writing (January 2015), the price of gold was $1300. The precious metals had been rising back then and many people started to talk about the beginning of the…

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Commitments of Traders

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 15. 10. 2015

As I had promised last time, I will finally delve into my quant beginnings. I consider the work in COT analysis to be my truly first quantitative achievement. COT, or the Commitments of Traders, is the report published by the CFTC (US federal agency for the supervision of commodity markets). The report is actually a…

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State of the crude oil market

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 9. 3. 2015

Crude oil has come through a massive sell-off. There are three main causes that led to this situation. Most importantly is the oversupply caused by rising production in the US (fracking), other causes are a strong dollar (US economy in good shape) and weak international demand (China slowing down). Although the current downturn is severe,…

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Where is gold heading in 2015

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 26. 1. 2015

Gold has been experiencing a strong rally since the start of 2015. The price currently hovers slightly below $1300. So what’s next for the gold price and what can we expect in the longer term? The most important thing I’d like to highlight is how the current move has impacted the positions structure of the…

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Natural gas at resistance

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 1. 4. 2013

Natural Gas is at $4 which was an unbreakable resistance that turned the price down last year. Actually, the price broke over $4 on Wednesday but pulled back on Thursday and is hovering slightly below $4 right now. Check out our chart of most liquid May future contract: So what now? Will the last year…

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Sugar reversal

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 25. 2. 2013

Sugar has been in a downtrend for quite some time. I think this is about to change. This is the daily OHLC chart from app.spreadcharts.com: Yep, no sign of a turnaround. So why do I think this may happen? Because of the internal structure of the market, i.e. distribution of futures positions between particular market participants….

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Soybean oil spread with great profit potential

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 21. 2. 2013

Today I have one more volatile (and therefore risky) spread. But despite volatility, this trade still has a very good RRR (risk reward ratio). The trade I’m talking about is the soybean oil interdelivery spread ZLZ13-ZLN13: Based on the picture above the technical setup is not great but still favorable. Price seems to have found…

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