Commitments of Traders – the Hedgers

Elen Lindisova | Tutorials | 25. 3. 2017

I wrote about COT analysis in my previous article. Today, I’ll continue with Commitment of Traders, which is an important part of my trading approach. I mentioned big players and how they move the market. I’m gonna describe who are these large market participants and how can we use their activity for our own benefit….

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From COT report to COT analysis

Elen Lindisova | Tutorials | 17. 3. 2017

COT report Commitment of Traders report is not beneficial only for us – spread traders, but also for outright futures traders, currency traders, etc. COT reveals what’s behind the curtain. It gives us information we’re unable to obtain from news and other common sources. We can determine whether the market is overbought or oversold, based…

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Where is gold heading in 2016

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 4. 1. 2016

It’s the beginning of the year, and here comes my traditional gold market forecast. First, I’d like to evaluate last year’s outlook. At the time of its writing (January 2015), the price of gold was $1300. The precious metals had been rising back then and many people started to talk about beginning of the new…

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Commitment of Traders

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 15. 10. 2015

As I promised last time, I will finally delve into my quant beginnings. I consider the work in COT analysis to be my truly first quantitative achievement. COT, or the Commitment of Traders, is the report published by the CFTC (US federal agency for the supervision of commodity markets). The report is actually a huge…

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State of the crude oil market

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 9. 3. 2015

Crude oil has come through a massive sell-off. There are three main causes that led to this situation. Most important one is the oversupply caused by rising production in the US (fracking), other causes are strong dollar (US economy in good shape) and weak international demand (China slowing down). Although current downturn is severe, it…

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Where is gold heading in 2015

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 26. 1. 2015

Gold is experiencing a strong rally since the start of 2015. The price currently hovers slightly below $1300. So what’s next for the gold price and what can we expect in the longer term? The most important thing I’d like to highlight is how the current move has impacted the positions structure of the gold…

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Natural gas at resistance

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 1. 4. 2013

Natural gas is at $4 which was an unbreakable resistance that turned the price down last year. Actually the price broke over $4 on Wednesday but pulled back on Thursday and is hovering slightly below $4 right now. Check out our chart of most liquid May future contract: So what now? Will the last year…

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Sugar reversal

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 25. 2. 2013

Sugar has been in downtrend for quite a time. I think this is about to change. This is daily OHLC chart from app.spreadcharts.com: Yep, no sign of turnaround. So why I think it may happen? Because of internal structure of market, i.e. distribution of futures positions between particular market participants. Simply said I’m talking about…

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Soybean oil spread with great profit potential

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 21. 2. 2013

Today I have one more volatile (and therefore risky) spread. But despite volatility this trade still has a very good RRR (risk reward ratio). The trade I’m talking about is soybean oil interdelivery spread ZLZ13-ZLN13: Based on the picture above the technical setup is not great but still favorable. Price seems to have found a…

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