Hedgers vs. Speculators

Elen Lindisova | Tutorials | 25. 5. 2017

In one of my recent articles about the COT report, I focused on the group of hedgers. Today, I would like to follow up on this topic with the second large group of market participants – the large speculators. This group is represented by the “Managed Money” in disaggregated COT reports or “Non-commercials” in the…


The widow maker spread ended in slight backwardation

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 26. 2. 2015

Unlike last year, when the widow maker spread expired in pretty wild backwardation, it finished yesterday in a quiet mood. But let’s explain a little bit about this spread. I’m talking about the interdelivery natural gas spread between March and April, NGH15-NGJ15. Consumption of natural gas is usually high in winter due to heating demand. Consumption…


Soybean oil spread with great profit potential

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 21. 2. 2013

Today I have one more volatile (and therefore risky) spread. But despite volatility, this trade still has a very good RRR (risk reward ratio). The trade I’m talking about is the soybean oil interdelivery spread ZLZ13-ZLN13: Based on the picture above the technical setup is not great but still favorable. Price seems to have found…


Crowded hogs spread

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 19. 2. 2013

Lean hogs are good for spread trading. So good that many people are watching it. I’ve seen recommendations to enter this trade during past weeks in many newsletters and from people on Twitter. The spread I’m talking about is HEM13-HEJ13. So, as I’ve said, most people who wished to enter this spread are probably already…


One of my favorite natural gas trades

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 18. 2. 2013

Time has come to enter one of my favorite spread trades. It’s in NYMEX natural gas – NGQ13-NGM13. I’ve made money on this spread every single year during last five years. I consider NG to be a great commodity for spread trading. This spread trade is also very conservative because you can set just a…


Wheat spread trade

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 13. 2. 2013

I’m watching one CBOT wheat interdelivery spread. It’s ZWZ13-ZWN13. Seasonality is pushing the spread up: ZWZ11-ZWN11 was an abnormal year and it’s distorting our chart. Luckily in our app you can interact with charts and that includes our seasonality analysis. If you click on the ZWZ11-ZWN11 in the legend or the little orange square beside…


Quick coffee trade idea

Pavel Hála | Trading ideas | 12. 2. 2013

One quick trade in NYBOT coffee (KC). Look at the spread KCK13-KCH13: Shorting the spread (i.e. long KCH13, short KCK13) would be a good idea right now. Why? Look at the seasonality analysis of this spread: It never gets much over 3.0 in the last ten years so there is probably an arbitrage barrier. And…