From COT report to COT analysis

Elen Lindisova | Tutorials | 17. 3. 2017

COT report The Commitments of Traders report is not only beneficial to us – spread traders, but also for outright futures traders, currency traders, etc. COT reveals what’s behind the curtain. It gives us the information we’re unable to obtain from news and other common sources. We can determine whether the market is overbought or…

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Understanding commodity ETF decay

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 1. 3. 2017

In the previous article, I explained the compounding effect and the reason why leveraged ETFs lose value over time. Today, we’ll take a look at commodity ETFs. These funds can decay very fast, even if they are non-leveraged. That’s because the mechanism of decay is of a different nature than that of leveraged ETFs holding…

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Not all ETFs are created equal

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 20. 2. 2017

ETFs or Exchange Traded Funds are an investing hit of recent years. Even small investors can seamlessly open a position in a stock index or various commodities using an ETF. Previously, this was only possible by using big futures contracts that require a huge account. However, the human invention has no boundaries. More exotic ETFs,…

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Where is gold heading in 2016

Pavel Hála | Analyses | 4. 1. 2016

It’s the beginning of the year, and here comes my traditional gold market forecast. First, I’d like to evaluate last year’s outlook. At the time of its writing (January 2015), the price of gold was $1300. The precious metals had been rising back then and many people started to talk about the beginning of the…

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Commitments of Traders

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 15. 10. 2015

As I had promised last time, I will finally delve into my quant beginnings. I consider the work in COT analysis to be my truly first quantitative achievement. COT, or the Commitments of Traders, is the report published by the CFTC (US federal agency for the supervision of commodity markets). The report is actually a…

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New term structure chart

Pavel Hála | Announcements | 16. 9. 2015

Term structure (or forward curve) gives investors an important insight into the state of the markets. Now you can find it in SpreadCharts too! It’s under Historical charts in the app. Here’s the current term structure for CBOT corn as an example:

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Seasonal trading signals launched!

Pavel Hála | Announcements | 11. 8. 2015

After about a year of development, we’re launching our new seasonal trading signals. The studies are based on our own algorithm, which was tweaked to find the best trades in the futures markets. Actual trades are sorted by the entry date. Each row contains the computed entry and exit date from the trade, average return…

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ICE futures added

Pavel Hála | Announcements | 29. 7. 2015

We’ve added ICE futures contracts into our app. We bought a new commercial data feed for ICE data. The most visible change is in the Softs group. However, there are also some new commodities in the energy group such as Brent Crude Oil, ICE Gasoil, UK Natural Gas and others. The Dollar index in the…

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Let the machines work for you

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 6. 7. 2015

In the previous article, I described the tool that scans through the commodities markets and finds interesting trading opportunities based on seasonality and contango. I also told beginners in quantitative trading not to get discouraged by the complexity of my description. I’ll describe my own beginnings in future parts of this series because I also…

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Why Excel won’t be enough?

Pavel Hála | Quantitative trading | 18. 6. 2015

In the previous article, I’ve explained what quantitative trading is about. In this article, I will briefly describe how to start your own research. As I wrote last time, I’m writing about my path and my approach, which may not suit everyone. So take this article as an inspiration. Quantitative trading has a great advantage…

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